January trade: the month to plan for in November

January trade is the hangover from December. For many restaurants in Europe and North America, it is the quietest month of the year. Guests have spent heavily over the holidays, many are cutting back on food and drink, the weather keeps people at home, and the office parties that filled the diary a few weeks ago are over. The venue that was turning tables away on the Saturday before Christmas is half empty on a Tuesday in mid January.

The mistake most venues make is to decide what to do about January in January. By then, the guests have already made their plans for the month, the cash from December has been spent on wages and suppliers, and any offer launched now arrives late. The venues that trade well through January decide in November: the menu, the offers, the hours, the rota, the cash plan and the emails, all ready before the festive rush begins.

This guide explains why January is so quiet, why its decisions belong in November, and the four moves that actually fill the month: a reason to visit, inviting regulars back early, quiet night trade done well, and a cost base matched to the trade. It covers cash flow, seasonal promotions that hold the margin, and how the picture differs in the Gulf, where the quiet season comes in summer instead.

January is quiet for several reasons at once. Guests have spent a great deal in December and many feel the pinch until the next pay day. Many decide to eat and drink less after the holidays, and some give up alcohol for the month. The weather in many countries is at its worst. And the social calendar that filled December empties suddenly.

The effect is usually strongest in the first three weeks of the month, with trade starting to recover towards the end, as pay day arrives and the weather begins to turn.

The first week is unusual. Some guests are still on holiday and eating out; others have gone back to work and stopped. Many venues close for a few days after New Year to rest the team, then reopen into a quiet week. Decide in November whether to close, for how long, and how to tell guests.

If you reopen, make the first week count: a warm welcome back message, the January menu ready, and the regulars invited personally. Guests who come out in the first week often set the pattern for the month.

Many guests are paid at the end of the month, and January's longest gap between pay days falls right after the expensive festive season. Trade often picks up in the last week of January, once pay day arrives. Plan for it: keep the team ready for a busier final weekend, and save a strong event or menu launch for the end of the month rather than the start.

The first weekend of February is often a good time to announce what comes next.

Lunch often holds up better than dinner in January, because office workers still need to eat during the day, and a lunch out feels more affordable than an evening. A good weekday lunch offer, quick and fairly priced, can keep the kitchen busy while dinners are quiet.

Look at last January's lunch and dinner covers separately, and plan each on its own merits.

In many countries, January weather keeps guests at home: cold, dark evenings, rain and snow. Make the venue a place people want to come to on a cold night: warm, well lit, with comforting food and a welcome at the door. On the worst nights, expect walk-ins to fall and bookings to cancel, and keep the rota flexible.

Note bad weather days on the trading record, so they are not mistaken for a trend when next year's plan is made.

By the time January arrives, three things have already happened. The venue's cash has been shaped by December. The guests have made their plans for the month, or decided to stay in. And the team is exhausted from the festive season, with little energy to plan anything new.

November is the last calm month before the festive rush. It is when the manager has time to plan, the kitchen has time to develop a January menu, and the emails for January can be written and scheduled. Decisions made in November arrive on time; decisions made in January arrive late.

Before planning, look at your own Januarys. How far did covers fall compared with an average month? Which weeks and which nights were quietest? Did lunch or dinner fall more? How did spend per head change? What did last year's January cost in wages and stock compared with its sales?

Our guide to seasonal trade shows how to map the whole year, of which January is often the deepest trough.

The venues that fill January usually combine four moves:

Each is planned in November and launched at the start of January. The sections that follow take each in turn.

Guests in January need a reason to come out: something that feels right for a month of tighter budgets and good intentions. That might be a January set menu at a fair price, a lighter menu that suits guests eating more healthily, an excellent alcohol-free drinks list for guests not drinking, or a dish or event that only happens in January.

The reason should feel generous without being a deep discount. Guests respond to good value and to feeling looked after; they do not need half price.

A short January menu, built around comforting food, seasonal produce and good value, gives guests a reason and helps the kitchen. It can use ingredients that are good and affordable in winter, and it can be designed to run with a smaller team. Some venues offer it as a set menu of two or three courses at a fixed price, available on weekdays.

Develop it in November, cost it carefully so it holds the margin, and have it ready for the first weekday of January.

Many guests drink less in January, and some give up alcohol entirely for the month. A venue that offers interesting alcohol-free drinks, such as house-made sodas, alcohol-free wines and beers, and well-made mocktails, keeps those guests' spend and makes them feel welcome rather than awkward.

Train the team to recommend them with the same care as the wine list. A guest who is not drinking still wants something good in the glass.

Regulars are the guests most likely to come in January, but even they need a nudge after the holidays. Invite them back early, in the first days of the month, before they settle into staying in. A personal message, a January menu preview, or a small welcome back gesture can bring them in on the quieter nights.

Our guide to lapsed guests and the message that brings them back covers how to write it.

Many guests receive gift vouchers for Christmas, and January is when many of them are used. A venue that sold vouchers in December has a ready supply of January covers, if it reminds guests to use them. Make redeeming easy, make sure the team knows how to handle vouchers, and welcome voucher guests as new regulars.

Plan voucher sales in November, so they are on sale for the whole of December.

Send January messages to the guests most likely to respond: regulars, guests who visited in the autumn, guests who live nearby and guests holding vouchers. Send only to those who agreed to hear from the venue, and keep messages short and useful.

Schedule the emails in November, so they go out on the right days in January without anyone having to remember. Our guide to email segmentation covers how to choose the groups.

January turns most nights into quiet nights. The approach is the same as for a quiet Monday at any time of year: measure the quiet nights first, decide whether to open or open shorter, and choose ways of filling seats that do not give away margin on guests who would have come anyway.

Our guide to quiet night trade sets out five ways to earn on a quiet night, and the one that builds regulars.

A weekly regulars' night, a supper club, a tasting evening, a guest chef or a themed dinner can give guests a reason to come out on a January weeknight. Events work best when they suit the venue and its guests, and when they are announced well in advance.

Plan a short series of January events in November, and announce them before the festive season ends, so guests can put them in their diaries.

Seasonal promotions can help in January, but they must be designed carefully. A deep discount fills seats with guests who leave when it ends and teaches regulars to wait for January. A good sales promotion targets the quiet times, has a clear end date and holds the margin: a weekday set menu, an early evening offer, or a bonus for regulars.

Before launching any promotion, do the sum. Our guide to offer margin covers it.

The fourth move is to match the venue's costs to January's trade. A rota built for December, opening hours set for the busy season and a full menu with full stock will lose money in a month with far fewer covers.

Plan the January rota in November from last January's covers, with fewer people at the quiet edges of each service. Consider shorter hours on the quietest nights, a smaller menu, and lower stock levels.

January is when many staff want time off after the festive season, and when the venue can most easily give it. Plan annual leave for January, so the team rests and the rota shrinks naturally. Keep the core team's hours fair, so nobody leaves because their January hours collapsed.

Seasonal staff hired for December usually finish at the end of the festive season. Agree their end dates when they are hired.

Look at last January's covers by day and hour. If Monday and Tuesday evenings were nearly empty, consider closing or opening shorter on those nights. If lunch was thin, consider a shorter lunch service or closing at lunch on some days. Close sections of the dining room on quiet nights to save energy and make the room feel fuller.

Publish any change to opening hours clearly, before January begins.

January is a good time for work the busy months do not allow: deep cleaning, equipment servicing, small repairs, training, menu development for the spring, and planning the year ahead. Book contractors in November for the quiet weeks.

Our guide to staff training that fits around service covers short sessions that suit a quieter month.

January is the month when cash flow bites. December brings in a great deal of cash, but much of it goes out again in late December and January: wages for the busiest weeks, supplier bills for festive stock, rent, and in some countries tax payments. A venue that does not plan can find itself short of cash in the quietest month of the year, despite a profitable December.

Build a cash forecast in November for December, January and February, and set aside cash from December to carry the trough. Our guide to cash flow: profitable and still short in January covers it in detail.

Talk to suppliers in November about January: their delivery days over the holidays, any price changes in the new year, and whether smaller, more frequent deliveries are possible while trade is quiet. Lower stock in January frees cash and reduces waste.

Pay suppliers on time through January. Good relationships matter more in the months when the venue needs flexibility.

Measure January week by week: covers, spend per head, the result of each offer and event, labour cost and cash. Compare with last January, not with December. At the end of the month, write down what worked and what did not, for next November's plan.

In the Gulf, the picture is different. January falls in the cooler, busy season, with residents and tourists eating out, and many venues trade well. The quiet season there is the summer, when heat and travel thin out the guests. The same planning principles apply, but to different months.

Our guide to Dubai summer trade covers how venues plan for the Gulf's quiet months.

Use November to prepare January:

Here is an illustrative January plan for a 70-seat restaurant. The figures are examples.

January covers were higher than last year, labour cost stayed in range, and the venue entered February without a cash squeeze.

In servearound, analytics reads for a quick range or one you pick, compared with the period before, and reservation analytics shows covers by day and hour, so last January's quietest nights are easy to see in November. Campaigns can be scheduled up to 90 days ahead, so January's emails can be written and set in November, and sent to opted-in audiences such as regulars, lapsed regulars or guests who visited this venue.

Menus can be scheduled by date, day or time window, so a January set menu appears only in January, and tables can be taken offline by day and hour on nights the venue closes early. See Analytics and Campaigns.

Guests have spent heavily in December, many cut back on food and drink, the weather keeps people in, and the festive social calendar ends.

In November, before the festive rush, so the menu, offers, emails, rota and cash plan are ready in time.

Avoid deep discounts. Offers that target quiet times, hold the margin and end on a set date work better.

A reason to visit, inviting regulars back early, quiet night trade done well, and a cost base matched to the trade.

Offer a proper alcohol-free list and train the team to recommend it.

Build a cash forecast in November for December to February, and set aside cash from December to carry January.

No. In the Gulf, January is usually busy, and the quiet season is the summer.

Last January, week by week, not December.

Some venues close for a few days after New Year to rest the team. Decide in November, tell guests early, and reopen with a clear reason to visit. Update the booking page and map listings so nobody arrives to a locked door.

January trade is quiet for predictable reasons, which is why its decisions belong in November. Map last January, then plan four moves: a reason to visit, such as a January menu and a good alcohol-free list; inviting regulars back early, including guests with gift vouchers; quiet night trade done well, with events and regulars' nights; and a cost base matched to the trade.

Use seasonal promotions that hold the margin, schedule January's emails in November, plan leave and shorter hours, and build a cash flow forecast so December's takings carry the quiet weeks. In the Gulf, apply the same thinking to the summer, as covered in our guide to Dubai summer trade.