Dubai summer trade: surviving the quiet months

Dubai summer trade is the test every venue in the city faces once a year. From around June to September, the heat rises, terraces empty, schools close for the long holiday and many residents travel. Tourist numbers are lower than in the cooler months. Venues that were full every weekend in February find themselves half empty on a Thursday in August, while the rent, the salaries and the air conditioning bill stay the same.

Some venues lose most of the year's profit in those months. Others trade through them steadily, and a few have some of their best months of the year. The difference is rarely luck. It is planning: knowing the shape of the quiet months in advance, adjusting the cost base to match, and choosing deliberately how to earn from the guests who are still in the city.

This guide sets out what happens to trade in a Dubai summer, why the seasonality is predictable enough to plan for, and four ways venues trade through the quiet months: cutting the cost base to the trade, winning the residents who stay, moving indoors and later, and using the quiet weeks for the work that busy months never allow. It covers the staff rota, the restaurant budget and how to measure the summer.

From late spring, temperatures rise sharply, and by midsummer outdoor dining during the day is uncomfortable for most guests. Terraces that carried the cooler months close or empty. School holidays, usually running from around early July to late August, take many families abroad, and many working residents take their annual leave at the same time.

Tourism continues but at a lower level than the peak winter season. The result, for most venues, is fewer covers, later evenings, and a different mix of guests.

The seasonality of Dubai trade is unusually predictable. The heat arrives at roughly the same time every year; the school holidays follow a known calendar; the cooler months bring residents and tourists back in the autumn. That predictability is an advantage. A venue can plan its summer months in spring, rather than reacting in July.

Look at last summer's covers by week and by day, last year's sales and costs for each month, and the dates of the coming school holidays. Our guide to seasonal trade covers how to map the year.

Summer affects venues differently. A beach club or terrace restaurant may lose most of its trade; an indoor venue in a mall may hold up well, as residents look for cool places to spend the day. Hotel restaurants may benefit from summer tourism and staycation offers. Office districts may stay steady on weekdays and quiet at weekends.

Know your own summer before deciding what to do. The plan for a terrace venue is very different from the plan for a mall restaurant.

Most venues that trade well through summer combine four approaches:

The sections that follow take each in turn.

The first way is the most important: make the cost of running the venue match the trade it will have. A summer week with two thirds of the covers of a winter week cannot carry the same rota, the same opening hours and the same menu without losing money.

Every cost line deserves a look: staff hours, opening hours, the menu, energy, space in use, stock levels and marketing spend. The aim is not to make the venue feel empty or cheap, but to stop paying for capacity that will not be used.

Start with opening hours. Look at covers by hour for last summer. If lunch was thin on weekdays, consider opening later. If the afternoon was empty, consider closing between services. If evenings moved later, consider shifting the evening service to match.

Publish summer hours clearly, on the website, the booking page and map listings, and keep them stable for the season. Guests forgive shorter hours; they do not forgive arriving to find a venue closed when it said it was open.

The staff rota is usually the largest cost that can change with the trade. Build the summer rota from the summer forecast, not from the winter pattern: fewer people at the quiet edges of each service, waves of start times as trade builds, and earlier finishes on quiet nights.

Summer is also when many staff want their annual leave. Plan leave across the summer so the venue is never short on the busiest days, and so the team returns rested for the autumn.

A shorter menu in summer reduces preparation, stock and waste. Keep the dishes that sell, the ones that suit the heat, and the ones that make the venue what it is. Lighter dishes, cold starters, salads and chilled desserts often sell better in summer than heavy winter dishes.

A shorter menu also lets the kitchen run with fewer people, which helps the rota.

Air conditioning is a large cost in a Dubai summer. Closing sections of the dining room on quiet nights, and cooling only the space in use, reduces the bill. Terraces that guests will not use should be closed, with their tables taken out of the bookable plan.

Check equipment too: fridges and freezers work harder in the heat, and a maintenance check before summer prevents breakdowns in July.

Lower trade means lower stock. Adjust par levels for the summer, order smaller quantities more often, and reduce the stock of slow-moving items. Stock that sits through a quiet summer ties up cash and risks waste.

Talk to suppliers about the summer too. Some offer better terms in quiet months, and some deliver less often, which affects ordering.

The second way is to win the residents who stay in the city through the summer. Many residents do not travel, or travel for only part of the summer, and they are looking for places to eat in comfort. A venue that gives them a reason to come, and makes them feel welcome, can fill seats that would otherwise be empty.

The guests most likely to come are the ones who already know the venue. Start with them.

Summer offers can bring residents in, but they must be built carefully. A deep discount fills seats with guests who come for the deal and teaches regulars to wait for it. A good summer offer gives guests a reason to come without giving away the margin: a summer set menu at a fair price, a weekday lunch offer, a family deal for the school holidays, or a regulars' evening.

Our guide to quiet night trade covers five ways to earn on a quiet night and what each costs.

Summer turns many nights into quiet nights. The same principles apply as for a quiet Monday in any season: measure the quiet nights first, decide whether to open or open shorter, and choose an approach that fills seats without discounting guests who would have come anyway.

A weekly regulars' night, a changing summer menu, or a themed evening can give residents a reason to come back every week of the summer.

Tell the guests most likely to come: regulars, guests who visited in the spring, and guests who live nearby. Email works well, because it can go to chosen groups at the right time: a summer menu to regulars, a family offer at the start of the school holidays, a welcome back message in September.

Send only to guests who have agreed to hear from the venue, and keep the messages useful and short. Our guide to email segmentation covers how to choose the groups.

Dubai runs summer events, including shopping festivals and family activities, that bring residents out. Venues in malls and busy districts can benefit from them. Plan offers and opening hours around the events that bring guests near the venue.

Check the event calendar in spring, so the offers are ready in time.

The third way is to follow when and where guests want to eat. In summer, guests eat later, stay indoors, and favour air-conditioned spaces. Venues that shift their service to match, with later evening hours, indoor seating and a comfortable atmosphere, catch the trade that remains.

A terrace venue may move its tables indoors or create a cool indoor area. A venue that normally peaks at 20:00 may find its summer peak at 21:00.

Look at last summer's covers by hour. If the evening peak moved later, move the service with it: later start times for the team, a later kitchen close, and a booking page that offers later times. Make sure the late evening feels lively rather than empty, with music and lighting that suit the hour.

Weekend brunch remains a strong format through the summer for many venues, because it gives residents a long, cool afternoon indoors. A summer brunch with a fair package price can fill a weekend that would otherwise be quiet.

Our guide to Dubai brunch covers how to run the format properly.

Delivery often holds up better than dining in during the summer, as residents stay at home in the heat. If the venue delivers, plan the kitchen and the menu for it, and watch the margins carefully, because delivery commission takes a large share of each order.

Our guide to delivery in Dubai covers the channels and the margins.

The fourth way is to use the quiet weeks for the work that busy months never allow. Summer is the natural time for refurbishment, deep cleaning, equipment servicing, menu development, training and planning the next season. Work done in August means a venue that opens the cooler months in its best condition.

Plan the work in spring, book contractors early, and schedule it for the quietest weeks.

If the venue needs refurbishment, summer is often the best time, especially for terrace and outdoor areas that are not in use. Book the work for the quietest weeks, and plan it so the venue can stay open if possible, or close for the shortest time.

Service the kitchen equipment, the air conditioning and the extraction, deep clean the whole venue, and fix the small problems that build up during the busy months.

Summer gives the kitchen time to develop the menu for the cooler months: test new dishes, cost them, train the team on them and photograph them. A new menu launched at the start of the busy season, rather than in the middle of it, has the best chance of success.

Quiet weeks are ideal for training: new starters can be trained properly, experienced staff can learn new skills, and the whole team can be refreshed on service standards and allergens. Our guide to staff training that fits around service covers short, practical sessions.

The restaurant budget should plan the summer from the start of the year, not discover it in July. Forecast sales for each summer month from last year's figures, adjusted for any changes. Forecast costs with the summer rota, hours and menu. The difference shows how much cash the venue needs to carry through the quiet months.

Make sure that cash is available. A venue that has spent its winter profits by June may struggle to pay rent and salaries in August.

Plan cash carefully. Rent in Dubai is often paid in a small number of cheques, and one may fall due in the middle of summer. Salaries, suppliers and utilities continue. Build a cash forecast for the summer months, and keep a reserve from the busy season to cover them.

Our guide to cash flow covers why profitable venues can still run short.

Some venues close for part of the summer, especially beach and outdoor venues whose trade almost disappears. Closing saves the costs that arise only when the venue opens, such as most staff hours, energy and stock, but the fixed costs, such as rent, continue. Closing also risks losing regulars and staff.

Weigh it honestly. If the summer takings do not cover the costs of opening, closing for a few weeks may lose less money than staying open.

Summer can be hard on staff: fewer hours, lower tips, quiet shifts. Some leave for venues that seem busier or for jobs abroad. Keep the team by being honest about the summer plan, sharing hours fairly, planning leave, and using the quiet weeks for training and development.

A team that comes back strong in September is worth more than the savings of cutting everyone's hours to the bone.

Measure the summer week by week: covers, sales, spend per head, labour cost and the result of each offer. Compare with last summer, not with the spring. At the end of the season, write down what worked and what did not, for next year.

The notes from one summer are the best plan for the next, far better than anyone's memory of it by the following April.

Here is an illustrative summer for an 80-seat venue with a terrace. The figures are examples.

Covers were lower than in spring, as expected, but the summer months covered their costs, and the venue opened the busy season with a new menu and a refreshed terrace.

In servearound, reservation analytics shows covers by day and hour, and every analytics page compares the range you choose with the period before, so last summer's shape can guide this one. Tables can be taken offline by day and hour, so a closed terrace stops appearing on the booking page, and menus can be scheduled by date, day or time window, so a summer menu appears only for the season.

Campaigns send email to opted-in, confirmed subscribers, with named audiences such as regulars, lapsed regulars and new guests, and can be scheduled up to 90 days ahead; automations that run weekly or monthly skip anyone mailed in the last seven days. servearound does not write rotas or budgets. See Analytics and Campaigns.

For most venues, roughly June to September, with the quietest weeks in July and August during the school holidays.

Only if the summer takings will not cover the costs of opening. Many venues open shorter instead.

Build it from last summer's covers, with fewer people at the quiet edges of each service and leave planned across the season.

Deep discounts often bring guests who do not return. Offers that hold the margin, such as set menus and regulars' nights, work better.

Close it and take its tables out of the bookable plan for the hottest months, and consider refurbishing it then.

Enough to cover the gap between summer sales and summer costs, including any rent cheque that falls due.

Refurbishment, maintenance, menu development and training, so the venue opens the busy season at its best.

Compare each summer with last summer, week by week, not with the spring.

In spring, while the venue is still busy, so the hours, rota, menu, offers and maintenance work are all ready before the heat arrives and the first families leave for the holidays.

Dubai summer trade is predictable: heat, school holidays and travel bring quieter months from around June to September. Plan for the seasonality in spring, and combine four ways of trading through it: cut the cost base to the trade, win the residents who stay with offers that hold the margin, move indoors and later, and use the quiet weeks for refurbishment, menu development and training.

Build the staff rota from last summer's covers, plan leave across the season, and treat quiet night trade with the same care as in any month. Put the summer in the restaurant budget from the start of the year, keep cash in reserve for it, and measure each summer against the last.